50 Days Out!

The election is 50 days out, but Virginia is currently leaning Republican and would elect McCain/Palin if the vote were today.  I reached this conclusion for the following reasons:

• McCain is ahead in the polls 50% to 44% in this state.  Fivethirtyeight.com's polls also support VA as voting red come November.  Although McCain is not ahead by a landslide, he has been gaining support in this state recently.  See this chart for a visual representation.
• Virginia is considered a swing state but it remains one of the more Republican states in presidential races.  However, the state has not been so adamantly Republican in the past couple of elections. In 1996, Bill Clinton lost in VA by only 2% and George W. Bush only won VA by 8% in 2000.  It may be close again in this year's election, but is leaning heavily toward McCain.  (This forecast would certainly be different if Obama had selected VA Governor Tim Kaine as his running mate.)
• Obama has not gained a significant lead over McCain thus far in Virginia.
• Key voter issues include gun rights and control issues, especially since the Virginia Tech shooting, and education reform/funding.  Both parties address these issues and I do not see this swaying voters to support one ticket over the other.