smuelectionprojectVA

Exit Polls

2008-11-07T10:59:00.000-08:00

For a full listing of Virginia's exit polls, visit this site.

Election Results

2008-11-07T09:35:00.001-08:00

Last Day!

2008-11-03T09:23:00.000-08:00

1 Day til election and I still think Obama will take Virginia, although not by such a large landslide as I formerly forcasted. The polls show a slight rise for McCain after he visited the state on Saturday, but I don't believe the momentum will last until election day. Obama had the last word when he made an appearance in the state yesterday, and has outspent McCain here consistently. This will be the first time in recent history that a Democratic Presidential candidate wins this historically Republican state. Just one more way Obama is making history.

McCain and Obama Battle it out for Virginia

2008-11-02T16:25:00.000-08:00

McCain visited Virginia yesterday in a last attempt to sway this state that historically votes Republican in his party's favor for another election. Obama, however, will be in Virginia tomorrow to seal this state's vote, which the polls show is tilting his way. Is is smart that Obama is following up McCain's visit and getting the last word? I think so.

Kaine Appears on 30-Minute Obama Segment

2008-10-31T11:37:00.000-07:00

Virginia Governor Time Kaine (D) appeared on the 30-minute segment Obama aired last night on multiple networks during Thursday night prime time. This was an brilliant move on the Obama campaign's part and probably sealed the deal for the once swing-state of Virginia. This ad also featured powerful Ohio politicians in an effort to sway this undecided state as well. Well done.

VA Strong Obama?

2008-10-28T14:28:00.000-07:00

According to Pollster.com, Virginia is now considered strong for Obama with the polls in that state giving the Democratic candidate an 8 point lead (51.8% to 43.8%). Fivethirtyeight.com agrees with this verdict.

Only 10 Days Away!

2008-10-24T15:55:00.000-07:00

Despite its historical record of voting Republican, this election may prove to be an anomaly for Virginia. According to the polls and a recent surge of registered voters in Virginia, this usually red state is looking more blue this go around.

This could be due to Obama's spending in this state which is nearly 4 times what McCain is pumping into his campaign here. Or, McCain could be losing ground in Virginia due to his economic policies. Joe McCain, the candidate's brother referred to two counties in this state as "communist country," meaning some Virginia citizens support Obama's "spread the wealth" ideas. As of right now, it seems that the majority of Virginians are on board with Barack, and if the election were held today, this state would be a shade of blue.

A larger trend is going on here, though. The Senate and House seats up for election this year in Virginia are also going to Democrats. If you view the poll trends, you will see that Obama has been on the rise with Virginian voters, finally surpassing McCain after the economic crisis.

So that must be what voters care about most: the economy. And apparently, they think Democratic politicians are the answer. We won't know for sure until election day, but the trends are in favor of Obama/Biden nearly a week out.

Obama in VA Today

2008-10-22T09:26:00.000-07:00

Obama is in Virginia today campaigning in the traditionally conservative state. It's looking like he's gonna pull this one off...

Why Virginia May Tilt Obama

2008-10-21T13:32:00.000-07:00

http://features.csmonitor.com/politics/2008/10/21/why-virginia-may-tilt-to-obama/

Obama in Roanoke

2008-10-17T11:06:00.000-07:00

Obama is addressing a crowd in Roanoke, VA today to talk about his health plan vs. McCain's ideas.

Leaning Obama

2008-10-15T16:07:00.000-07:00

Bill Sneider just announced on CNN that they have moved Virginia from a toss-up state to "leaning Obama." Is McCain totally out? Tonight's debate will let us know.

Watch this

2008-10-09T17:34:00.001-07:00

This article outlines 10 things to watch in the next month that will sway Virginia one way or another. Leaning Obama...

Voter Registration

2008-10-07T14:43:00.000-07:00

The deadline for voter registration in Virginia was yesterday, and the various locations for doing so were swamped with last-minute citizens signing up to vote in the general election this November. Virginia could really go either way right now, so these new voters will really make a difference in this election.

Appearance

2008-10-07T14:42:00.000-07:00

McCain and Palin will be swinging through this swing state next week. They plan to visit Richmond and Virginia Beach on October 13th.

2008-10-06T08:24:00.000-07:00

The Obama-McCain race in Virginia is one of the most aggressive in election history. Obama has spent nearly 9 million dollars on campaign ads in this state since June, compared with McCain's 4 million dollars. Now, McCain and Obama are spending $300,000 A DAY on ads in Virginia, as the campaigns grow increasingly concerned about losing the election because of this state. The Washington Post reports the full story on the ad war in this battleground state.

Obama Takes the Lead

2008-10-06T08:09:00.000-07:00

Obama is ahead of McCain in Virginia, although not significantly. He is up by 0.3% and rising...keep track of the polls here.

Vote in Virginia

2008-10-06T08:05:00.000-07:00

Republicans are urging out-of-states students attending Virginia universities to vote in Virginia rather than their home states, since it is such a battleground state. See an article on this by clicking here. Voting registration deadline for Virginia is TODAY.

Too Close to Call

2008-10-02T08:23:00.001-07:00

Virginia is still a toss up. McCain has regained a slight lead over Obama, though, according to the New York Times' most recent analysis.

Neck in Neck!

2008-09-29T20:29:00.000-07:00

According to pollster.com, today, Obama and McCain are neck in neck, each winning 47.7%. If you put your faith in the polls, this state is exactly split in half and what happens on Election Day will be a surprise! November is getting closer...

Gettin Closer!

2008-09-22T11:01:00.001-07:00

According to pollster.com today, Virginia is becoming more of a toss-up state. McCain is up 47.8 to 46.6. Obama is on his tail! Keep watching this state.

Obama has an uphill climb in VA...

2008-09-16T21:05:00.000-07:00

AP released an article about Obama's dire outlook on winning Virginia. The article says that it will be "difficult but not impossible" for the Democrats to take this state in November. Read the full article here.

50 Days Out!

2008-09-14T15:26:00.001-07:00

The election is 50 days out, but Virginia is currently leaning Republican and would elect McCain/Palin if the vote were today. I reached this conclusion for the following reasons:

McCain is ahead in the polls 50% to 44% in this state. Fivethirtyeight.com's polls also support VA as voting red come November. Although McCain is not ahead by a landslide, he has been gaining support in this state recently. See this chart for a visual representation.
Virginia is considered a swing state but it remains one of the more Republican states in presidential races. However, the state has not been so adamantly Republican in the past couple of elections. In 1996, Bill Clinton lost in VA by only 2% and George W. Bush only won VA by 8% in 2000. It may be close again in this year's election, but is leaning heavily toward McCain. (This forecast would certainly be different if Obama had selected VA Governor Tim Kaine as his running mate.)
Obama has not gained a significant lead over McCain thus far in Virginia.
Key voter issues include gun rights and control issues, especially since the Virginia Tech shooting, and education reform/funding. Both parties address these issues and I do not see this swaying voters to support one ticket over the other.

Obama's VP

2008-08-23T16:34:00.001-07:00

So Biden it is. Not choosing Virginia governor Tim Kaine as Obama's running mate might have been a mistake for the Democratic party, since having a Southerner VP has only strengthened the ticket in the past...time will tell.